'Event management can distract from, but not permanently mask, execution failures,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
They say that a stimulus package may not be necessary because, unlike last year's total lockdown, public transport, including the railways and airlines, is running and the restrictions on movement are localised and, in some cases, are partial rather than total.
Can the finance minister manage our expectations, asks A K Bhattacharya.
Rajnath Singh outlined the major measures and initiatives taken by the Modi government to provide basic needs to people of India, including providing homes, building toilets to end open defecation, electricity, cooking gas and focusing on infrastructure development.
The non-food component in the price basket will continue to keep inflation at a high level and result in a "long pause" in interest rates, a foreign bank said on Wednesday. The central bank is likely to pare the pandemic-driven emergency response as well, the report by Singaporean lender DBS said. It can be noted that the high inflation driven by the food prices has forced the RBI to go for a status quo in rates for the three consecutive reviews of the bi-monthly policy meetings, even as growth continues to be in the negative territory.
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Narrowing of the current account deficit will help arrest depreciation of the rupee and ease inflation concerns, industry groups said.
Indian service sector output broadly stabilised in September but remained in the contraction zone as incoming new business fell moderately due to the damaging impact of the pandemic on demand, leading to more job losses.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies will slow to 4.4 per cent in 2014, before rising to 5.0 per cent in 2015, it said.
'The current budgetary practice of shifting expenditures off-balance sheet in order to be seen to be meeting fiscal targets should be discontinued; additional fiscal stimulus would be imprudent; individual income tax rates should not be cut; GST rates should not be raised now,' advise Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
Rates may be raised from 5 per cent to 8 per cent and 12 per cent to 15 per cent. The Council can explore possibility of merger of slabs to bring down the number of slabs to three. The Central GST collection fell short of the Budget Estimate by nearly 40 per cent during the April-November period of 2019-20
'Today, there is no easy money to be made after the run-up in equities.'
New series points to a sharp recovery since FY14.
Twelve of the 21 economists polled doubted whether the government could roll out the tax before the next fiscal year begins in April.
Currently, the spend on R&D as a percentage of GDP is just 0.9%
The country's manufacturing sector activity recorded another sharp deterioration in business conditions during May as new orders placed with producers continued to fall after April's record contraction, leading firms to cut jobs at the quickest pace on record, a monthly survey said on Monday.
Moody's expect RBI to hold policy 'repo' rate steady to have a neutral stance in this growth
'The Indian economy is in slowdown and growth may stay slow,' notes Devangshu Datta.
The longest winning streak was the six years between 2002-2007 when the Nifty moved from around 1,000 to over 6,000.
On the revenue front, the finance ministry was expecting higher proceeds from non-tax revenue.
India's GDP growth has slowed down to 7.8 per cent for January-March quarter from 9.4 per cent in corresponding period of the previous year.
'If the government spends Rs 10 lakh crore this year then you would be looking at a GDP growth of minus 5 per cent.' 'If you do not do this, you will be looking at GDP growth between minus nine and minus 10 per cent.'
The Economic Survey states that the rationalisation and reprioritisation of subsidies through better targeting would play a vital role in fiscal consolidation and in targeting expenditure more towards inclusive development.
The new data comes a day after China and the US signed a long-awaited phase one deal, marking a ceasefire in the 18-month-long trade war which saw the world's two largest economies slap 25 per cent tariffs on about half a trillion-dollar worth of each other's exports. The world's second-largest economy grew by 6.1 per cent last year, its worst performance since 1990, but it remained above the psychologically important mark of six per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The non-oil, non-finance sector of the economy is under severe stress.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday unveiled a Rs 39.45 lakh crore Budget with a view to fire up the key engines of the economy to sustain a world-beating recovery from the pandemic. This was Sitharaman's fourth Budget. While the taxpayers were left in the lurch, once again, was she able to cheer Corporate India?
ITC was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, tanking 6.97 per cent, followed by L&T, HDFC, SBI, ONGC, ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank.
The government has been waiting for the expansion by the private sector, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said while reminding India Inc of various measures including corporate tax rate cut, policy consistency, ease of doing business, among others to facilitate investment.
For India Inc, latest GDP figures signal a turnaround.
'Many Indians are not voting mostly on the basis of issues like the economy and their own well-being as measured by data provided by the government.' 'They seem to be as concerned and perhaps more concerned about other things, especially those that have to do with the harassment of India's minorities,' asserts Aakar Patel.
The one-time restructuring of loans will help every firm and prevent cost-cutting measures such as lay-offs.
'It has the potential to add half a trillion dollars to the economy over the next five years.'
'Pakistan has power -- they have the power of terrorism and the reluctance of the world to act against them.'
'In a serious fiscal situation like this, an ostrich-like focus on annual budgeting, event management and defensive rhetoric will only make matters worse,' warns Rathin Roy.
Pronab Sen, the government's former chief statistician, says contrary to perception, GDP growth won't be drastically hit in the present quarter.
'Although Hong Kong weathered many a storm and displayed a remarkable resilience to bounce back, the developments in the territory have raised question marks with regard to its future stability and prosperity.' A revealing excerpt from Rup Narayan Das's Hong Kong Conundrum: Pangs of Transition.
The measures to reduce the current account deficit should have focused far more on narrowing the trade imbalance, principally through export facilitation and linked FDI, says Nitin Desai.
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
As a percentage of the aggregate Budget expenditure, it is 12 per cent.
'HEADLINE HUNTING. A NUMBER -20 LAKH CRORES. NO DETAILS'
Where do Indian workers stand when it comes to per capita income around the world?
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